A broad set of activity indicators substantiates our view that the Eurozone is in the Initial Recovery phase of the business cycle. We expect that activity will continue to improve, but the recovery will be slow and uneven. Importantly, the ECB will likely adjust monetary policy to protect against growing downside risks for prices which will provide support for the economy.
Despite slow economic growth, we continue to believe that European equity markets will outperform over the next 6-12 months. Further, we expect greater yield convergence across sovereign debt markets and a lower trending euro and have positioned our portfolio accordingly.
Please review On Deck – Eurozone in which we analyze the recent economic trends in Europe and their impact on broader activity: On Deck – Eurozone (Fall 2013)